Abstract

A growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted revisions in sanitary and phyotsanitary standards in industrialized countries. This paper quantifies the impact of standards on aflatoxins implemented by the EU on food exports from African countries. We employ a gravity-equation model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the EU standard and those suggested by international standards, using trade and regulatory survey data for 15 European countries and 9 African countries between 1989-1998. The results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the EU will have a negative impact on African exports of cereals, dried fruits and nuts to Europe. The EU standard, which would reduce health risk by approximately 1.4 deaths per billion a year, will decrease these African exports by 64 percent or US$ 670 million in contrast to regulation set at an international standard.

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